Speed Handicapping: 26th January 2010 Southwell

As what I was hoping to report on is not conducive to a blog without a great deal of time and effort, I have decided to change tack slightly and make this blog multi-purpose.

Firstly, here is a quick overview of why and what we are looking for to give us the edge and to improve our profitability.
Two of the positives to be taken out of our last exercise were recognition that strike rate was no guarantee of a profit and that concentrating on handicaps, even with a 10% reduction in strike rate, was more profitable than non-handicaps.

This will have a psychological impact on your perception of the selections being made and it will be easy during long losing runs to lose confidence in the process.

Here are some facts to strength your resolve regarding The Actuary speed figures so far for 2010:

*Blindly backing all top rated\joint top rated horses in 2010

*478 bets, 113 winners yielding a level stake profit of 79.96 points

If you are familiar with Mordin or Beyer perhaps you have some idea of how unique The Actuary figures are, not only unique in how they are compiled, but both Mordin and Beyer make it abundantly clear that backing their top rated in every race would NOT yield a profit. If further endorsement is needed consider that the profit of 79.96 is based upon SP and should be seen as an extremely conservative estimate.

BUT still there is room for improvement. Some more facts for you....

*Concentrating purely on Handicap races would reduce the strike rate dramatically but yield a greater profit and this is what we are looking for.

*312 bets, 67 winners (21.5%) would yield a profit of 102.2 points to 1 point level stakes

As part of my Speed Handicapping process retrospective adjustments need to be made to the figures based upon subsequent performances. What I am going to provide in this blog are both sets of figures for Handicaps and Conditions races to see if the adjustment improves the accuracy.

My Speed Figures as published at http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/ will appear to the left of the horses’ name. To the right, will be the figure based upon how the form for the horses’ previous race\meeting is standing up. This has a visual representation to make it easier on the eyes.

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26th January 2010 Southwell

It would be easy to cut Wolverhampton out of the equation considering yesterdays results coupled with the fact that this is the only track consistantly making a loss. At odds with this is that Wolverhampton is giving a 29.41% strike rate! Considering we are in profit to the tune of 7.79pts at Kempton while registering only a strike rate of 17.5%. Lingfield is showing a very healthy 36.62% and Southwell 28.79% and both making good profit. February will see a change in tactic with a staking plan based upon course profitability.

Sirjosh Southwell 01:20 -1.00

Convince Southwell 01:50 -1.00

Magnitude Southwell 02:20 -1.00

Aeroplane Southwell 02:50 -1.00

Shadows Lengthen Southwell 03:20 1ST 11-4 +2.75

Ghazwah Southwell 03:50 1ST 8-11 +0.73

Wedding Dream Southwell 04:20 1ST 11-4 +2.75

Profit'n'Loss of Handicap Top Rated

26th June 2010 Lingfield

23rd June 2010 Kempton

21th June 2010 Lingfield

19th June 2010 Lingfield

16th June 2010 Kempton

12th June 2010 Lingfield

9th June 2010 Kempton

6th June 2010 Southwell

5th June 2010 Lingfield

4th June 2010 Wolverhampton

3rd June 2010 Lingfield

2nd June 2010 Kempton

27th May 2010 Wolverhampton

25th May 2010 Lingfield

22nd May 2010 Lingfield

20th May 2010 Southwell

19th May 2010 Lingfield

17th May 2010 Wolverhampton

11th May 2010 Southwell

10th May 2010 Wolverhamptom

7th May 2010 Lingfield

5th May 2010 Southwell

3rd May 2010 Kempton

30th April 2010 Lingfield

28th April 2010 Kempton

27th April 2010 Lingfield

26th April 2010 Wolverhampton

24th April 2010 Wolverhampton

23rd April 2010 Wolverhampton

22nd April 2010 Southwell

21st April 2010 Kempton

20th April 2010 Wolverhampton

20th April 2010 Kempton

26th January 2010 Southwell

Blog Archive

FEBRUARY 2010 SUMMARY

JANUARY 2010 SUMMARY