Speed Handicapping

As what I was hoping to report on is not conducive to a blog without a great deal of time and effort, I have decided to change tack slightly and make this blog multi-purpose.

Firstly, here is a quick overview of why and what we are looking for to give us the edge and to improve our profitability.
Two of the positives to be taken out of our last exercise were recognition that strike rate was no guarantee of a profit and that concentrating on handicaps, even with a 10% reduction in strike rate, was more profitable than non-handicaps.

This will have a psychological impact on your perception of the selections being made and it will be easy during long losing runs to lose confidence in the process.

Here are some facts to strength your resolve regarding The Actuary speed figures so far for 2010:

*Blindly backing all top rated\joint top rated horses in 2010

*478 bets, 113 winners yielding a level stake profit of 79.96 points

If you are familiar with Mordin or Beyer perhaps you have some idea of how unique The Actuary figures are, not only unique in how they are compiled, but both Mordin and Beyer make it abundantly clear that backing their top rated in every race would NOT yield a profit. If further endorsement is needed consider that the profit of 79.96 is based upon SP and should be seen as an extremely conservative estimate.

BUT still there is room for improvement. Some more facts for you....

*Concentrating purely on Handicap races would reduce the strike rate dramatically but yield a greater profit and this is what we are looking for.

*312 bets, 67 winners (21.5%) would yield a profit of 102.2 points to 1 point level stakes

As part of my Speed Handicapping process retrospective adjustments need to be made to the figures based upon subsequent performances. What I am going to provide in this blog are both sets of figures for Handicaps and Conditions races to see if the adjustment improves the accuracy.

My Speed Figures as published at http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/ will appear to the left of the horses’ name. To the right, will be the figure based upon how the form for the horses’ previous race\meeting is standing up. This has a visual representation to make it easier on the eyes.

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1st February 2010 Wolverhampton

Commander Wish Wolverhampton 02:05 -1.00

Monsieur Reynard Wolverhampton 02:40 -1.00

Anjomarba Wolverhampton 03:15 1ST 3-1 +3.00

The Great Husk \ Riviera Chic Wolverhampton 03:50 -0.50 1ST 15-8 +0.94

Creevy Wolverhampton 04:20 -1.00

Seldom Wolverhampton 04:50 -1.00

Minimusic Wolverhampton 05:20 -1.00

Starburst Wolverhampton 05:50 NON RUNNER

31st January 2010 Kempton

The Strig Kempton 02:25 1ST 11-10 +1.10

R Woody Kempton 02:55 -1.00

Misaro Kempton 03:25 -1.00

Fathsta Kempton 03:55 -1.00

Blue Lyric Kempton 04:25 -1.00

Erinjay Kempton 04:55 1ST 2-1 +2.00

30th January 2010 Lingfield

It may make more sense not to play these while Lingfield is riding so slow. I will continue the excercise as long as I am playing with Bookmakers money but silently weep as the early profit is eroded!!

Sushitan Lingfield 01:05 -1.00

Darshonin Lingfield 01:40 -1.00

Freddie´s Girl Lingfield 02:15 -1.00

The Scorching Wind Lingfield 02:45 1ST 13-2

Red Somerset \ Alfresco Lingfield 03:20 -1.00

Mafeking Lingfield 03:55 -1.00

Maximus Aurelius Lingfield 04:25 -1.00

29th January 2010 Lingfield

The Great Husk Lingfield 01:05 -1.00

Thunderstruck Lingfield 01:40 1st 11-4 +2.75

Dichoh \ Mocha Java Lingfield 02:15 -1.00

Avow Lingfield 02:50 -1.00

Head To Head Lingfield 03:25 -1.00

Anne Of Kiev Lingfield 04:00 -1.00

Novillero Lingfield 04:30 -1.00

29th January 2010 Wolverhampton

Lyrical Intent Wolverhampton 04:40 1ST 5-4 +1.25

Convince \ Via Mia Wolverhampton 05:10 -1.00

Total Impact Wolverhampton 05:40 1ST 5-4 +1.25

Fen Spirit Wolverhampton 06:10 -1.00

Interchoice Star Wolverhampton 06:40 -1.00

Hydrant Wolverhampton 07:10 -1.00

Inside Story \ Royal Bet Wolverhampton 07:40 -1.00

Bajan Pride Wolverhampton 08:10 -1.00

28th January 2010 Southwell

Takajan Southwell 01:35 -1.00

Boundless Prospect Southwell 02:10 -1.00

Kings Ace Southwell 02:45 -1.00

Bookiesindex Girl Southwell 03:20 1ST 10-11 +0.91

Highland River Southwell 03:50 -1.00

Aaman Southwell 04:20 1ST 2-1 +2.00

28th January 2010 Kempton

Royal Acclamation Kempton 04:55 NON RUNNER

Hi Spec Kempton 05:25 -1.00

Major Lawrence Kempton 05:55 -1.00

M´Lady Rousseur Kempton 06:25 -1.00

Chalice Welcome \ Quinsman Kempton 06:55 -1.00

Den´s Gift \ Quick Release Kempton 07:25 -1.00

Hollow Jo Kempton 07:55 -1.00

FEBRUARY 2010 SUMMARY

TOTAL PROFIT\LOSS -3.21

KEMPTON -8.63 (13.75%)

LINGFIELD -6.22 (27.56%)

SOUTHWELL -1.73 (30.33%)

WOLVERHAMPTON -23.78 (22.22%)

Profit'n'Loss of Handicap Top Rated

26th June 2010 Lingfield

23rd June 2010 Kempton

21th June 2010 Lingfield

19th June 2010 Lingfield

16th June 2010 Kempton

12th June 2010 Lingfield

9th June 2010 Kempton

6th June 2010 Southwell

5th June 2010 Lingfield

4th June 2010 Wolverhampton

3rd June 2010 Lingfield

2nd June 2010 Kempton

27th May 2010 Wolverhampton

25th May 2010 Lingfield

22nd May 2010 Lingfield

20th May 2010 Southwell

19th May 2010 Lingfield

17th May 2010 Wolverhampton

11th May 2010 Southwell

10th May 2010 Wolverhamptom

7th May 2010 Lingfield

5th May 2010 Southwell

3rd May 2010 Kempton

30th April 2010 Lingfield

28th April 2010 Kempton

27th April 2010 Lingfield

26th April 2010 Wolverhampton

24th April 2010 Wolverhampton

23rd April 2010 Wolverhampton

22nd April 2010 Southwell

21st April 2010 Kempton

20th April 2010 Wolverhampton

20th April 2010 Kempton