As what I was hoping to report on is not conducive to a blog without a great deal of time and effort, I have decided to change tack slightly and make this blog multi-purpose.

Firstly, here is a quick overview of why and what we are looking for to give us the edge and to improve our profitability.
Two of the positives to be taken out of our last exercise were recognition that strike rate was no guarantee of a profit and that concentrating on handicaps, even with a 10% reduction in strike rate, was more profitable than non-handicaps.

This will have a psychological impact on your perception of the selections being made and it will be easy during long losing runs to lose confidence in the process.

Here are some facts to strength your resolve regarding The Actuary speed figures so far for 2010:

*Blindly backing all top rated\joint top rated horses in 2010

*478 bets, 113 winners yielding a level stake profit of 79.96 points

If you are familiar with Mordin or Beyer perhaps you have some idea of how unique The Actuary figures are, not only unique in how they are compiled, but both Mordin and Beyer make it abundantly clear that backing their top rated in every race would NOT yield a profit. If further endorsement is needed consider that the profit of 79.96 is based upon SP and should be seen as an extremely conservative estimate.

BUT still there is room for improvement. Some more facts for you....

*Concentrating purely on Handicap races would reduce the strike rate dramatically but yield a greater profit and this is what we are looking for.

*312 bets, 67 winners (21.5%) would yield a profit of 102.2 points to 1 point level stakes

As part of my Speed Handicapping process retrospective adjustments need to be made to the figures based upon subsequent performances. What I am going to provide in this blog are both sets of figures for Handicaps and Conditions races to see if the adjustment improves the accuracy.

My Speed Figures as published at http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/ will appear to the left of the horses’ name. To the right, will be the figure based upon how the form for the horses’ previous race\meeting is standing up. This has a visual representation to make it easier on the eyes.


.,
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Profit'n'Loss of Handicap Top Rated

The profit and Loss is based upon top rated in Handicaps and Conditions races (NOT Amateur or Apprentice)

+128.81 Standard Rating - Adjusted Rating -29.98

June 2010 Winners
(red = top rated by both methods)

The City Kid 12-1, Baoli 11-2, Gracies Gift 6-5, Efisio Princess 6-1, Celtic Step 9-4, Cape Rock 7-1, Beaubrav 7-1, Leelu 8-1, Mawaddah 7-2, Ocean of Peace 10-1, Graylyn Ruby 20-1, Speed Dating 11-10,

26th June 2010 Lingfield

26th June 2010 Lingfield

23rd June 2010 Kempton

23rd June 2010 Kempton

21th June 2010 Lingfield

21th June 2010 Lingfield

19th June 2010 Lingfield

16th June 2010 Kempton

16th June 2010 Kempton

12th June 2010 Lingfield

12th June 2010 Lingfield

9th June 2010 Kempton

9th June 2010 Kempton

6th June 2010 Southwell

6th June 2010 Southwell

5th June 2010 Lingfield

5th June 2010 Lingfield

4th June 2010 Wolverhampton

4th June 2010 Wolverhampton

3rd June 2010 Lingfield

3rd June 2010 Lingfield

2nd June 2010 Kempton

2nd June 2010 Kempton

27th May 2010 Wolverhampton

27th May 2010 Wolverhampton

25th May 2010 Lingfield

25th May 2010 Lingfield

22nd May 2010 Lingfield

22nd May 2010 Lingfield

20th May 2010 Southwell

20th May 2010 Southwell

19th May 2010 Lingfield

19th May 2010 Lingfield

17th May 2010 Wolverhampton

17th May 2010 Wolverhampton

11th May 2010 Southwell

11th May 2010 Southwell

10th May 2010 Wolverhamptom

10th May 2010 Wolverhamptom

7th May 2010 Lingfield

7th May 2010 Lingfield

5th May 2010 Southwell

5th May 2010 Southwell

3rd May 2010 Kempton

3rd May 2010 Kempton

30th April 2010 Lingfield

30th April 2010 Lingfield

28th April 2010 Kempton

28th April 2010 Kempton

27th April 2010 Lingfield

27th April 2010 Lingfield

26th April 2010 Wolverhampton

26th April 2010 Wolverhampton

24th April 2010 Wolverhampton

24th April 2010 Wolverhampton

23rd April 2010 Wolverhampton

23rd April 2010 Wolverhampton

22nd April 2010 Southwell

22nd April 2010 Southwell

21st April 2010 Kempton

21st April 2010 Kempton

20th April 2010 Wolverhampton

20th April 2010 Wolverhampton

20th April 2010 Kempton

20th April 2010 Kempton

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12th February 2010 Southwell

Fully expected this excercise to have been in the minus figures but I have survived for another day!

Tobrata Southwell 01:15 -1.00

Maoi Chinn Tire Southwell 01:45 (2ND 9-4) -1.00

Total Impact Southwell 02:20 (2ND 10-11) -1.00

My Mate Mal Southwell 02:55 1ST 9-4 +2.25

Doctor Zhivago Southwell 03:30 1ST 2-7 +0.29

Turning Circle Southwell 04:05 (2ND 15-8) -1.00

Ant Music Southwell 04:40 -1.00

12th February 2010 Wolverhampton

Rocket Ruby Wolverhampton 05:15 NON RUNNER

Admirable Duque Wolverhampton 05:45 (2ND 11-4) -1.00

Gemma´s Delight Wolverhampton 06:15 -1.00

Tourist Wolverhampton 06:45 -1.00

Motarjm Wolverhampton 07:15 -1.00

Mojeerr Wolverhampton 07:45 -1.00

Only A Game Wolverhampton 08:15 -1.00

Miss Firefly Wolverhampton 08:45 -1.00

11th February 2010 Southwell

This excercise seems to be dying a slow lingering death. From its bright start it was not unexpected for a down turn at some stage but it now appears that the earlier results in January were a fortunate bubble which has now burst. There have been some positives which I will share in the next excercise. I am expecting tomorrows results may see the loss of the remaining profit of 4.83 points before moving on BUT I am really excited by the next excercise which I will give details of tomorrow.

Viking Awake Southwell 01:50 -1.00

La Capriosa Southwell 02:20 -1.00

Cornus Southwell 02:50 -1.00

Victory Quest Southwell 03:20 -1.00

Tiger Hawk Southwell 03:50 1ST 4-5 +0.80

Gaily Noble Southwell 04:20 -1.00

Charging Indian Southwell 04:50 1ST 9-4 +2.25

11th February 2010 Kempton

Mister Incredible Kempton 05:00 -1.00

Alqaahir Kempton 05:30 1ST 13-2 +6.50

Farncombe Kempton 06:00 (2nd 15-2) -1.00

Silidan Kempton 06:30 -1.00

Harting Hill Kempton 07:00 1ST 15-8 +1.88

Satwa Gold Kempton 07:30 (2nd 9-1) -1.00

Peter´s Gift Kempton 08:00 -1.00

Divine Force Kempton 08:30

10th February 2010 Lingfield

Christmas Coming Lingfield 01:25 -1.00

Laureldeans Best Lingfield 01:55 -1.00

Spinning Ridge Lingfield 02:25 NON RUNNER

El Libertador Lingfield 02:55 -1.00

Quince Lingfield 03:25 -1.00

Bowmaker Lingfield 03:55 -1.00

Khanivorous Lingfield 04:25 -1.00

10th February 2010 Southwell

Castle Myth Southwell 01:30 1ST 11-8 +1.38

Absa Lutte Southwell 02:05 NON RUNNER

Sarah´s Boy Southwell 02:40 1ST 3-1 +3.00

10th February 2010 Kempton

Cocktail Party Kempton 05:10

Best Trip Kempton 05:40

Crimson Flame Kempton 06:10

Desert Vision Kempton 06:40

Dvinsky Kempton 07:10

Temple Fair Kempton 07:40

My Mandy Kempton 08:10

9th February 2010 Southwell

Jackie Kiely Southwell 01:50 1ST 11-4 +2.75

Turf Time Southwell 02:20 -1.00

Monte Major Southwell 02:50 -1.00

My Mandy Southwell 03:20 -1.00

Bel Cantor \ Esprit De Midas Southwell 03:50 -1.00

Little Meadow Southwell 04:20 -1.00

Spruce Southwell 04:50 1ST 2-13 +0.15

8th February 2010 Wolverhampton

Monte Major Wolverhampton 02:00 NON RUNNER

Ardmaddy Wolverhampton 02:30 -1.00

Obe Gold Wolverhampton 03:00 -1.00

Kipchak Wolverhampton 03:30 -1.00

Remark Wolverhampton 04:00 -1.00

Bestowed Wolverhampton 04:30 -1.00

Capeability Wolverhampton 05:00 -1.00

Granny McPhee Wolverhampton 05:30 -1.00

7th February 2010 Southwell

A miserable day more akin to results experienced at Kempton not Southwell. The times recorded would suggest the track was far less testing than normal and the hotley contested finishes would back this up. It will be interesting to see how the form stands on reappearance special that of Trans Sonic.

My intention to continue this litle test is perhaps fool hardy but will use up the remaining profit of £20.56 in the hope of a turn of fortune.
 
General Tufto Southwell 01:40 -1.00

Inside Track Southwell 02:10 -1.00

Fine And Dandie Southwell 02:40 -1.00

Marjolly Southwell 03:10 -1.00

D´Urberville Southwell 03:40 -1.00

Zaffeu Southwell 04:10 -1.00

Mister Frosty Southwell 04:40 -1.00

6th February 2010 Lingfield

War And Peace Lingfield 01:25 (2ND 9-1) -1.00

Ginger Grey Lingfield 02:00 1ST 9-4 +2.25

Cavalry Guard \ Lord Deevert Lingfield 02:30 -1.00

Posy Fossil Lingfield 03:05 -1.00

Nickel Silver Lingfield 03:35 1ST 6-5 +1.20

King´s Salute Lingfield 04:10 -1.00

Nubar Boy Lingfield 04:45 -1.00

5th February 2010 Lingfield

Sparkling Montjeu Lingfield 01:15 -1.00

Monaco Dream Lingfield 01:45 -1.00

New Den Lingfield 02:20 (2nd 20-1) -1.00

Hart Of Gold Lingfield 02:55 -1.00

Transfixed Lingfield 03:30 -1.00

Private Olley Lingfield 04:05 -1.00

Bavarica Lingfield 04:40 1ST 10-1 +10.00

5th February 2010 Wolverhampton

King´s Icon Wolverhampton 05:05 -1.00

Miss Starlight Wolverhampton 05:35 -1.00

Farncombe Wolverhampton 06:05 -1.00

African Cheetah Wolverhampton 06:35 -1.00

Brierty Wolverhampton 07:05 (3rd 25-1) -1.00

Klynch Wolverhampton 07:35 -1.00

The Great Husk Wolverhampton 08:05 -1.00

4th February 2010 Wolverhampton

Dickie Le Davoir Wolverhampton 04:50 -1.00

Just Bond Wolverhampton 05:20 -1.00

Greyfriarschorista Wolverhampton 05:50 1ST 2-7 +0.29

Kirstys Lad Wolverhampton 06:20 -1.00

Ours Wolverhampton 06:50 -1.00

Aaman \ Baltimore Patriot Wolverhampton 07:20 -1.00

Shandelight Wolverhampton 07:50 1ST 9-2 +4.50

Through The Forest \ Valkyrie Wolverhampton 08:20 -1.00

4th February 2010 Southwell

Miss Bootylishes Southwell  02:00 -1.00

Ant Music Southwell 02:30 1ST 7-1 +7.00

General Tufto Southwell  03:00 -1.00

Greenbelt Southwell  03:30 -1.00

Lujiana Southwell  04:00 -1.00

Fulford Southwell  04:30 1ST 7-4 +1.25

3rd February 2010 Kempton

I dont normally marked the big priced horses that place but today I will to make me feel better after drawing a complete blank here tonight

Sadeek Kempton 05:00 -1.00

Timeteam Kempton 05:30 (3rd 20-1) -1.00

Charlie Smirke Kempton 06:00 (2nd 5-1) -1.00

Danger Mulally Kempton 06:30 -1.00

Dolly Will Do Kempton 07:00 (3rd 40-1) -1.00

Josiah Bartlett Kempton 07:30 (3rd 10-1) -1.00

Prince Valentine Kempton 08:00 -1.00

3rd January 2010 Lingfield

Chanrossa Lingfield 12:40 1ST 10-3 +3.33

Spoof Master Lingfield 01:10 NON RUNNER

Tejime Lingfield 01:40 -1.00

Rondeau Lingfield 02:15 -1.00

Hawaana Lingfield 02:50 -1.00

Prince Picasso Lingfield 03:25 -1.00

Whodunit Lingfield 04:00 -1.00

Star Strider Lingfield 04:35 -1.00

2nd February 2010 Southwell

Aaman Southwell 01:30 1ST 1-4 +0.25

My Mate Mal Southwell 02:00 1ST 7-2 +3.50

Not My Choice \ Zeffirelli Southwell 02:30 -1.00

Stonecrabstomorrow Southwell 03:00 -1.00

Poet´s Place Southwell 03:30 1ST 10-11 +0.91

NO SELECTION Southwell 4:00

Lily Lily Southwell 04:30 NON RUNNER